Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock Performance

CMG Stock  USD 37.54  0.43  1.13%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Chipotle Mexican holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.42, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Chipotle Mexican will likely underperform. Please check Chipotle Mexican's standard deviation, value at risk, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Chipotle Mexican's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Chipotle Mexican Grill are ranked lower than 12 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly weak primary indicators, Chipotle Mexican reported solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(1.13)
Five Day Return
3.73
Year To Date Return
0.13
Ten Year Return
256.84
All Time Return
4.2 K
Last Split Factor
50:1
Last Split Date
2024-06-26
1
Insider Trading
12/12/2025
2
Jim Cramer on Chipotle I Think That Wall Streets Going to Be Wrong Here
02/04/2026
3
Burrito budget busted Chipotle confirms 2026 price hikes
02/11/2026
4
CMG Home Loans Announces New Hire of Michael Curtin, Area Sales Manager
02/17/2026
5
Restaurant Stocks To Watch Now February 18th
02/18/2026
6
Restaurateurs have become millionaires
02/19/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow778.4 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-35.1 M

Chipotle Mexican Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  3,119  in Chipotle Mexican Grill on November 23, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  635.00  from holding Chipotle Mexican Grill or generate 20.36% return on investment over 90 days. Chipotle Mexican Grill is generating 0.33% of daily returns assuming volatility of 2.0629% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 18% of stocks are less volatile than Chipotle, and above 94% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Chipotle Mexican is expected to generate 2.77 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.77 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.16 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.15 per unit of risk.

Chipotle Mexican Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Chipotle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 37.54 90 days 37.54 
about 41.03
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chipotle Mexican to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 41.03 (This Chipotle Mexican Grill probability density function shows the probability of Chipotle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.42 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Chipotle Mexican will likely underperform. Additionally Chipotle Mexican Grill has an alpha of 0.1745, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chipotle Mexican Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chipotle Mexican

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chipotle Mexican Grill. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.5237.5839.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.7944.3146.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
36.0538.1240.18
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.3344.3249.20
Details

Chipotle Mexican Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chipotle Mexican is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chipotle Mexican's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chipotle Mexican Grill, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chipotle Mexican within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.17
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.42
σ
Overall volatility
2.91
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

Chipotle Mexican Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chipotle Mexican for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chipotle Mexican Grill can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Chipotle Mexican has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Restaurateurs have become millionaires

Chipotle Mexican Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chipotle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chipotle Mexican's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chipotle Mexican's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.3 B
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Chipotle Mexican Fundamentals Growth

Chipotle Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Chipotle Mexican, and Chipotle Mexican fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Chipotle Stock performance.

About Chipotle Mexican Performance

By analyzing Chipotle Mexican's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Chipotle Mexican's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Chipotle Mexican has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Chipotle Mexican has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 1.95  2.21 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.17  0.18 
Return On Capital Employed 0.26  0.27 
Return On Assets 0.17  0.18 
Return On Equity 0.54  0.57 

Things to note about Chipotle Mexican Grill performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chipotle Mexican for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Chipotle Mexican Grill help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chipotle Mexican is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Chipotle Mexican has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Restaurateurs have become millionaires
Evaluating Chipotle Mexican's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Chipotle Mexican's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Chipotle Mexican's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Chipotle Mexican's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Chipotle Mexican's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Chipotle Mexican's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Chipotle Mexican's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Chipotle Mexican's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Chipotle Mexican's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Chipotle Mexican's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Chipotle Mexican's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Chipotle Stock analysis

When running Chipotle Mexican's price analysis, check to measure Chipotle Mexican's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chipotle Mexican is operating at the current time. Most of Chipotle Mexican's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chipotle Mexican's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chipotle Mexican to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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